Aradel 9M Revenue Jumps 633% to ₦3.95trn as Earnout Charge Cuts Profit to ₦43.3bn

A Larger Company, a Broken Comparison

The year on year percentages in Aradel's results describe a change of perimeter more than organic growth. ND Western and Renaissance, previously equity accounted associates, have been consolidated since December 31, 2025, so the 2025 base contains none of their production or revenue. Prices added a genuine tailwind on top: realised crude averaged $97.50 per barrel against $75.60 a year earlier, and gas realised $2.64 per thousand standard cubic feet against $1.64. Crude supplied 69% of revenue and gas 26%, with refined products contributing the remaining 5%.

Within the enlarged group, unit economics improved. Field operating costs fell 28% to $7.90 per barrel of oil equivalent, crude output averaged 57,900 barrels per day and gas production reached 503.6 million standard cubic feet per day. The refinery was the exception, with output down 18% to 194.2 million litres at 45% utilisation.

Cash Flow Tells a Cleaner Story Than Profit

Reported profit and cash generation point in opposite directions, and the cash picture is the stronger one. Net operating cash flow of ₦2.46 trillion funded ₦570.6 billion of capital expenditure, ₦580.5 billion of debt repayment and interest, and ₦543.9 billion of earnout payments, yet the group still closed September with ₦2 trillion of cash and a net cash position. Excluding the earnout charge, profit after tax attributable to shareholders was ₦572.4 billion, up 134%, a company calculated measure that strips out the charge but remains the clearest guide to the underlying run rate.

The ₦7 interim dividend, cut from ₦10, reflects that tension. Cash generation supports a payout, but the earnout liability still standing at ₦1.32 trillion argues for restraint, and the board framed the decision in exactly those terms.

The Earnout Negotiation Is Now the Main Event

What happens to reported earnings from here depends less on production than on a contract dispute. The ₦529.1 billion charge sits inside net finance costs of ₦797.3 billion, and management argues the earnout, designed to give the seller of the former Shell assets an equal economic interest in a defined asset pool, no longer delivers the balanced participation both sides intended. Talks with the seller are under way, and chief executive Adegbite Falade told BusinessDay he is optimistic of a resolution before the end of this year, though no date has been set.

That timeline makes the negotiation the single largest swing factor in Aradel's full year result: a restructured earnout would remove a charge that has so far absorbed more than a fifth of the group's operating cash flow, while an unresolved one leaves reported profit detached from an operating business that just produced ₦1.56 trillion of operating profit in nine months.