Nigeria's oil revenue performance in the third quarter of 2025 significantly underperformed against budget expectations, underscoring the nation's fiscal vulnerabilities despite marginal increases in actual oil receipts.
The Budget Office of the Federation reported that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion. This figure represents a substantial shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, when compared to the quarterly budget projection.
The prorated quarterly gross oil revenue target for 2025 was set at N12.76 trillion within the 2025 budget framework. The actual revenue generated fell considerably short of this target.
Despite the overall deficit, oil revenue experienced a modest increase from N4.77 trillion in Q2 2025 and N4.62 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024. This translates to a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter growth and a 5.41% year-on-year increase.
The Budget Office's fiscal framework for 2025 projected a total federally collectable revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil revenue expected to contribute N51.05 trillion, accounting for 65.38% of the total projected revenue. The prorated quarterly revenue expectation for 2025 was approximately N19.52 trillion.
Revenue Shortfalls Across Key Lines
A detailed look at the oil revenue components reveals significant shortfalls against budget targets for several major revenue lines during the quarter.
Crude Oil and Gas Sales generated N622.99 billion, falling short of the projected N1.18 trillion by N555.2 billion, a shortfall of 47.12%. Other revenue lines also experienced deficits, contributing to the overall underperformance.
In parallel, the Federal Government's borrowing activities in the first nine months of 2025 amounted to N11.89 trillion. This figure exceeded the projected N10.34 trillion for the period by N1.54 trillion, or 14.91%.
These borrowings comprised N7.08 trillion in domestic borrowing and N4.81 trillion in multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans. No foreign borrowing was recorded, despite a N1.38 trillion provision in the budget for the first three quarters.
Capital Expenditure Trails Budget Significantly
Despite substantial borrowing, the government's capital expenditure remained significantly below budgeted amounts. Total capital expenditure for the first nine months of 2025 stood at N3.10 trillion, against a budgeted N17.58 trillion. This indicates that only about 17.66% of the allocated funds for capital projects were spent.
Capital expenditure by Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) was particularly weak, at N1.21 trillion against a N13.90 trillion target, representing a shortfall of N12.69 trillion, or 91.31%. Conversely, capital expenditure by government-owned enterprises matched its budget of N615.68 billion, and grants and donor-funded projects exceeded their projections, reaching N1.08 trillion against a N541.43 billion target.
Notably, the capital expenditure line for multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans recorded zero spending, despite N2.52 trillion being budgeted under this category.
