Nigeria’s crude oil production surged to an average of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June 2026, marking the highest monthly output recorded by the country since April 2020. This significant increase was disclosed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Sunday.
The latest figures indicate that Nigeria surpassed its 1.5 million bpd crude oil production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), achieving 104% of the target. When combined with condensate production, the total output reached 1.735 million barrels per day for the month.
Production Exceeds OPEC Quota
According to the NUPRC, Nigeria’s average crude oil and condensate production reached 1,735,398 barrels per day in June, representing the fourth consecutive month of production growth. The total comprised 1.56 million bpd of crude oil and 0.18 million bpd of condensates, with crude oil output alone exceeding OPEC’s production quota for Nigeria.
The commission highlighted that combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.89 million bpd during June, while the lowest daily production recorded was 1.57 million bpd. This trajectory brings output closer to the 2 million barrels per day mark.
Sustained Growth and Operational Stability
NUPRC data shows Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production has maintained an upward trajectory over the past five months. Production increased from 1.483 million bpd in February to 1.546 million bpd in March, 1.663 million bpd in April, 1.700 million bpd in May, and 1.735 million bpd in June, representing a 2.2% month-on-month increase.
The sustained growth is primarily attributed to stable production operations across most producing assets. The absence of major pipeline outages during the review period supported these higher production levels. Improved operational stability has enhanced production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency, contributing to the continuous increase in combined crude oil and condensate production over the past four months.
Government Efforts and Future Projections
Nigeria has historically faced significant challenges in meeting its OPEC production quota due to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, and operational disruptions. June marked the second consecutive month that Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota, following 1.530 million bpd in May 2026. Prior to May, the country last surpassed its quota in July 2025, with an average daily production of 1.505 million bpd, according to OPEC data.
Recent government efforts to improve pipeline security and attract upstream investments have supported this production recovery. Despite operational challenges, Nigeria maintains its position as Africa’s leading crude oil producer, outperforming Libya, Algeria, Congo, and Gabon.
Industry stakeholders are assessing how much further Nigeria can raise crude oil output after years of declining investment. Austin Avuru, Co-Founder and Pioneer Chief Executive Officer of Platform Petroleum Limited and Seplat Energy Plc, stated in April 2026 that Nigeria’s crude oil production could rise to about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030 as investment gradually returns to the upstream sector.
More recently, ExxonMobil and its partners committed $1 billion to the Usan Infill Project, which is expected to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production by approximately 40,000 barrels per day. The Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million bpd oil production benchmark for 2026 but retained a more conservative 1.8 million bpd benchmark for budget implementation.
In the first quarter of 2026, the NUPRC reported that Nigeria supplied 28.5 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refineries, significantly below the 61.9 million barrels allocated for the period. An increase in crude oil production could bolster Nigeria’s fiscal position and foreign exchange earnings, as government revenue remains closely linked to production volumes and global oil prices. However, sustaining higher output will depend on continued investment, operational stability, and improvements in crude evacuation infrastructure.
