Full operations at the Dangote Refinery, eagerly awaited to ease Nigeria's fuel import dependence, may not be realized until the latter half of 2026 due to a potential bottleneck in a critical processing unit. Specifically, challenges with the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit could delay the refinery from reaching its full production capacity, according to a new report.

The RFCC unit is essential for converting heavy, low-value oils into higher-value products such as gasoline and diesel. Without optimal performance of this unit, the refinery's ability to maximize its output of these key fuels will be significantly hampered. This comes as Nigeria continues to grapple with high fuel prices and relies heavily on imports.

The Dangote Refinery, a multi-billion dollar project, is expected to have a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world. Its successful operation is seen as a game-changer for Nigeria's energy sector, potentially transforming the country from a net importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum products. The development follows previous delays in the refinery's commissioning, adding to concerns about energy security.

Market watchers believe that resolving the RFCC bottleneck is crucial for the refinery to achieve its ambitious production targets. Any delays in reaching full capacity could prolong Nigeria's reliance on imported fuels and impact domestic fuel prices. The focus will now shift to the steps taken to address and mitigate these challenges in the coming months to ensure that the refinery can operate at its full potential as soon as possible.