Banking Sector Drives Market Resurgence
Nigeria’s equities market staged a strong July rebound, adding about N10.9 trillion in market capitalisation as investors repositioned for half-year earnings and piled into banking, insurance, and other large-cap stocks. The NGX All-Share Index increased by 6.92 percent month-on-month to 245,283.68 points, from 229,419.18 points at the end of June, while total market capitalisation rose to N158.33 trillion from N147 trillion reported on June 30.
The July rally lifted the market’s year-to-date return to 57.62 percent, equivalent to a 69 percent gain in dollar terms, according to the July 2026 Nigerian Macroeconomic and Markets Report by Commerico Partners. Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on information and strategy, attributed the strong financial performance to the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration since 2023.
The banking sector emerged as the biggest driver of the market’s July recovery, with the NGX Banking Index soaring 22.1 percent. First HoldCo was the standout performer, surging 131.13 percent during the month, while AccessCorp gained 19.55 percent, Fidelity rose 17.44 percent, UBA added 15.89 percent, Zenith Bank increased 12.32 percent, Wema Bank gained 11.54 percent, and FCMB rose 10.63 percent.
GTCO also advanced 4 percent, while Ecobank Transnational Incorporated declined 6.57 percent as investors took profits. The rally was underpinned by improving earnings expectations, with FCMB reporting a 90 percent year-on-year increase in profit after tax to N139.9 billion, while Wema Bank’s profit after tax increased 50.1 percent to N131.4 billion.
Insurance and Telecoms Join the Rally
The NGX Insurance Index gained 9.28 percent in July, with earnings and recapitalisation developments shaping investor positioning. Consolidated Hallmark led the sector with a 39.33 percent gain after H1 profit after tax jumped to N25.28 billion, while NEM rose 21.71 percent and Custodian gained 21.49 percent, supported by respective profit after tax increases of 16.8 percent and 38.9 percent.
The Industrial Goods Index gained 3.57 percent, taking its year-to-date return to 85.42 percent. HBM Nigeria, Dangote Cement, and Austin Laz were among the major gainers, while profit-taking hit BUA Cement, CAP, and Cutix. Telecommunications stocks also attracted strong buying interest, with MTN Nigeria gaining 16.25 percent and Airtel Africa rising 21 percent during July.
MTN’s rally was supported by strong H1 results, with service revenue up 25.9 percent and profit after tax rising 70.6 percent to N707.5 billion. Broadly, the July recovery was highly inclusive, with 68 stocks gaining against 35 decliners, while 22 equities closed flat.
Consumer Goods Lag as Oil Stocks Rise
The broad market recovery masked weakness in consumer goods, as the NGX Consumer Goods Index declined 4.11 percent to 4,405.53 points. Champion Breweries, NASCON, BUA Foods, and Nestlé were among the major decliners, while Honeywell Flour Mills, Unilever, Dangote Sugar Refinery, and International Breweries recorded gains.
The NGX Oil and Gas Index rose 3.21 percent in July, closing at 5,242.33 points and taking its year-to-date gain to 96.32 percent. Eterna, Aradel Holdings, and Japaul Gold gained 18.92 percent, 7.71 percent, and 8.21 percent, respectively, while Oando fell 8.39 percent. The sector benefited from a sharp increase in Brent crude prices, which rose 23.6 percent during July to about $90.12 per barrel.
Macroeconomic Support and August Outlook
The NGX rebound came against a relatively more stable macroeconomic backdrop. Nigeria’s external reserves rose above $52 billion during July, while the naira remained relatively stable, providing a cushion against renewed foreign-exchange volatility.
Headline inflation eased marginally to 15.91 percent in June from 15.93 percent in May, although food inflation accelerated to 17.52 percent. The Central Bank of Nigeria also maintained the monetary policy rate at 26.5 percent, supporting naira-denominated assets but keeping borrowing costs elevated.
Despite the strength of the July rebound, the Commerico Partners report expects the market’s momentum to moderate in the near term as the earnings catalyst fades. Liquidity could also come under pressure ahead of the anticipated Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO in September, as investors potentially redirect funds towards the major listing.
