Nigeria’s equities market entered the third quarter of 2026 on strong footing, with the NGX All-Share Index having posted a year-to-date return of nearly 60% and market capitalisation closing in on N160 trillion as of Thursday, July 23. This performance aligns with expectations from major research houses and market strategists.
The NGX All-Share Index gained 47.43% as of June 30, rising from 155,613.03 points at the start of the year to 229,419.18 points by the end of June, after touching 250,385.70 points in May. Similarly, the market capitalisation rose to N147.22 trillion, up from N99.376 trillion at the beginning of the year.
A review of projections from Meristem Securities, Blue Marina Research, Cowry Asset Management, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Vetiva Research, and Cordros Capital reveals a broad consensus. Most analysts’ views tilt towards banking as the sector most likely to lead Q3 performance, with industrial goods, telecommunications, and select consumer names offering secondary support.
While many analysts point to attractive valuations following June’s market correction, others caution that elevated Treasury yields could continue to compete with equities for investor flows through the rest of the year.
Analyst Projections for Q3 2026
The updated Q3/H2 2026 outlooks extensively covered by Nairametrics reveal a fairly consistent pattern across research desks, even as individual stock picks vary.
Meristem Securities has issued buy recommendations focused on banks, including Zenith Bank, ETI, UBA, and Fidelity Bank, alongside MTN Nigeria, AIICO, and NASCON. They argue that valuations remain attractive ahead of Q2 earnings releases.
Blue Marina Research forecasts banking stocks to lead the Q3 recovery, citing strong upside potential for Zenith Bank, UBA, Access Holdings, and ETI, alongside MTN Nigeria and Dangote Cement.
Cowry Asset Management remains positive on banking, consumer goods, and selected industrial names, pointing to attractive valuations that emerged following June’s pullback. Arthur Steven Asset Management projects strong upside for banks, ETI, MTN Nigeria, AIICO, and industrial stocks heading into H2 2026.
Vetiva Research’s weekly Q3 recommendations remain overweight on GTCO, Zenith Bank, FCMB, Nigerian Breweries, and Nestlé Nigeria, signalling continued confidence in financials and select consumer names. Cordros Capital expects investors to accumulate fundamentally sound stocks ahead of H1/Q2 earnings releases, while warning that elevated Treasury yields will continue to compete with equities for investor capital.
Consensus Sector Outlook and Expert Views
These research notes converge around a handful of recurring themes for Q3 2026. Banking is the strongest conviction sector across nearly all research houses, underpinned by recapitalisation gains, earnings resilience, and dividend potential.
Telecommunications, led by MTN Nigeria, is favored on the back of resilient cash flows. Industrial Goods, particularly Dangote Cement and BUA Cement, are supported by continued infrastructure spending. Oil & Gas is viewed as attractive given strong earnings and FX-linked revenue exposure, while selective Consumer Goods, especially Nestlé Nigeria, NASCON, Guinness Nigeria, and Nigerian Breweries, are noted following recent valuation corrections.
Beyond formal research notes, independent market strategists offered more specific views on sector positioning into Q3. Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research at GTI Capital Limited, named banking, industrial, and telecoms as his top picks for the quarter, adding that consumer goods “should tag along as inflation further moderates.”
On Oil & Gas, Ogunniyi described it as the standout performer on the Exchange year-to-date but flagged a concentration risk. He stated, “My major concern is that the sterling performance of the NGX Oil and Gas [Index] YTD has been driven mainly by upstream players: Aradel (+127%) and Seplat (+95%). It has been a highly concentrated rally.”
Ogunniyi said H2 earnings could trigger another rally for oil and gas names but cautioned that renewed interest may not match the intensity seen in Q1 and early Q2 “until, probably, Q4.” He linked expectations for stronger upstream earnings to firmer crude prices, a fallout of the war in Iran, though he was uncertain on timing for a fresh rally, saying only that “it’s good to position ahead.”
Chief Blakey Ijezie, founder of Okwudili Ijezie & Co (Chartered Accountants), was more direct in his Q3 call, stating plainly that banking would “remain the principal engine of the Nigerian Exchange in the third quarter.” He cited resilient earnings, attractive valuations, strong capital positions, and consistent dividend prospects. “I expect the Banking Sector to lead the Q3 rally, with Industrial Goods providing strong secondary support,” Ijezie said.
Ijezie added, “If corporate earnings continue to meet expectations and macroeconomic conditions remain relatively stable, the benchmark All Share Index (ASI) has a credible opportunity to advance to fresh historic highs before the end of the quarter.” Within the sector, Ijezie flagged Access Holdings, GTCO, Zenith Bank, UBA, FirstHoldCo, and Fidelity Bank as names to watch closely.
He singled out Access Holdings in particular, noting that despite delivering a pretax profit exceeding N1 trillion and another strong quarterly performance, “the market valuation still appears to lag its underlying fundamentals,” adding that a narrowing of this valuation gap could make the stock one of the quarter’s strongest performers.
Beyond banking, Ijezie expects industrial goods—led by Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and Lafarge Africa—to provide meaningful secondary support, driven by continued infrastructure investment and construction activity. He also pointed to consumer goods as worth watching as inflation moderates and purchasing power improves, alongside insurance, which he described as “one of the market’s undervalued frontiers,” citing regulatory reforms and improving profitability as potential value triggers. Oil and gas names with strong cash flows and disciplined balance sheets were also flagged as likely positive contributors.
Key Considerations for Investors
The near-universal preference for banking stocks across research houses reflects the sector’s recent recapitalisation, which has strengthened capital buffers and, in several cases, boosted earnings visibility heading into H2 2026 results season. Industrial goods names, particularly cement producers, are being tied closely to Nigeria’s infrastructure spending cycle rather than short-term trading momentum.
The Oil & Gas sector’s year-to-date strength has been unusually concentrated in two upstream names—Aradel Holdings and Seplat—while downstream players have lagged, a divergence several analysts flagged as a risk to watch. Elevated fixed income yields remain the most commonly cited headwind, with Cordros Capital explicitly warning that Treasury Bills and bonds will continue competing with equities for investor capital through the quarter.
Taken together, the weight of research and expert opinion points to a Q3 2026 market where banking stocks are expected to set the pace, industrial goods and telecoms providing support, and pockets of value in insurance, consumer goods, and select oil and gas names offer additional upside for investors willing to look beyond the most crowded trades.
