The World Bank has projected a significant 60% surge in global urea prices for 2026, a development that is raising concerns over fertilizer affordability, food inflation, and agricultural productivity, particularly in developing economies.
This projection, detailed in the World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, highlights tightening supply conditions, rising energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions as key drivers that could push urea prices to some of their highest levels in decades.
In Nigeria, urea is a widely used nitrogen-based fertilizer, making the projected price increase a critical concern for the agricultural sector.
Global Fertilizer Market Faces Price Hikes
The World Bank forecasts that global fertilizer prices will increase by over 31% in 2026. Consequently, fertilizer affordability is expected to fall to its weakest level since 2022.
Natural gas, a crucial component in ammonia production, accounts for 80% to 90% of the associated costs, making energy prices a primary factor influencing fertilizer prices.
The report indicates that supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz, are constricting global fertilizer supply chains.
The World Bank projects that urea prices could exceed $700 per metric tonne under adverse conditions. This figure represents the second-highest level in real terms after 1974, should risks materialize.
Shipping bottlenecks and logistics constraints are further exacerbating market volatility by increasing delivery costs.
Export restrictions by major producing countries could also contribute to tightening global supply.
Higher fertilizer costs may lead to reduced usage by farmers, potentially impacting overall crop yields.
The World Bank noted that prolonged disruptions or an escalation in geopolitical tensions could push prices beyond the $700 per metric tonne threshold, reaching levels not seen since the 1970s in real terms.
