A recent report has highlighted a significant escalation in terrorist activities within Northwest and Central Nigeria. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project's findings reveal an alarming 86% surge in violent incidents involving Islamist groups across Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states between 2024 and 2025. This increase has transformed remote transit corridors into active conflict zones, posing a severe threat to regional stability.

The ACLED report, published on Thursday, February 26, 2026, further indicates a staggering 262% rise in fatalities linked to these attacks during the same period. The report underscores the growing influence of jihadist groups across West Africa, where governments and foreign militaries have struggled to contain their advance for over a decade.

Fighters aligned with al Qaeda and Islamic State are deepening their presence across the region, including Benin’s Alibori and Borgou departments, Niger’s Dosso region, and Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states. The report describes their operations as demonstrating “continued spread, growing lethality, and rising risks to civilians.”

ACLED also notes an intensification in communication by jihadist groups in the tri‑border zone, suggesting potential escalation between rival factions. The sparse governance and porous borders in frontier regions have long enabled militants to evade security forces, resupply fighters, and assert control over local communities.

Nigeria has been grappling with Islamist insurgents for over 15 years, primarily Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the northeast. However, al Qaeda and Islamic State‑affiliated cells have become more active in the northwest, taking advantage of dense forests and limited state presence.

In response to the escalating violence, the U.S. conducted airstrikes in Sokoto state in December and has deployed a small number of troops to train Nigerian forces. However, regional coordination has weakened in recent years, with Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali—now under military juntas—partially withdrawing from regional security blocs, thereby hindering joint counterterrorism operations.

The report highlights that jihadist groups are increasingly vying for influence and control in frontier regions, reflecting broader trends of jihadist expansion in the Sahel and coastal West Africa, with growing implications for regional stability.

In October 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Nigeria and accused the President Bola Tinubu administration of allowing the mass slaughter of Christians.

Earlier this month, Kwara State experienced one of its deadliest attacks in 2026, when armed bandits stormed Woro village, resulting in at least 35 fatalities.

In November, President Tinubu directed the immediate withdrawal of police officers attached to Very Important Persons (VIPs) across the country, ordering their redeployment to core policing duties.