Nigeria's annual inflation rate climbed to 15.38 percent in March 2026, a reversal from the previous month's 15.06 percent and marking the end of an 11-month period of declining inflation. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the increase was primarily driven by rising costs in food, transportation, and accommodation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that headline inflation increased by 0.32 percentage points from February to March. This renewed upward pressure on prices signals a shift after a period of moderation.

On a month-on-month basis, the acceleration was more pronounced, with inflation rising to 4.18 percent in March from 2.01 percent in February. This suggests a faster pace of price increases within the month.

The NBS also noted that the CPI reached 135.4 in March, a 5.4-point increase from 130.0 in February.

While the March 2026 annual inflation rate of 15.38% is significantly lower than the 27.35% recorded in March 2025, the recent monthly surge indicates building inflationary pressures.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to the headline inflation, accounting for 5.55 percentage points. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 3.26 percentage points, and transport added 1.80 percentage points.

The report highlighted a divergence in inflation trends between urban and rural areas. Urban inflation stood at 14.64 percent year-on-year, while rural inflation was considerably higher at 17.22 percent, indicating more intense price pressures in rural communities.

On a monthly basis, rural inflation saw a sharp increase to 6.73 percent in March, up from 0.71 percent in February.

Food inflation, a key component of the overall inflation basket, also saw an increase, standing at 14.31 percent on a year-on-year basis in March 2026. This is up from 12.12 percent in February 2026, though lower than the 25.22 percent recorded in March 2025.

Month-on-month, food inflation was 4.17 percent in March, reflecting persistent increases in the prices of staple items.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, rose to 16.21 percent year-on-year in March. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased to 4.03 percent, a significant jump from 0.89 percent in February.

The average inflation rate for the 12 months ending March 2026 was 20.05 percent, higher than the 18.58 percent recorded in March 2025.

State-level inflation varied, with Bayelsa recording the highest year-on-year inflation at 27.37 percent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 percent and Bauchi at 23.67 percent. Osun had the slowest rise at 5.25 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, Zamfara recorded the highest increase at 10.77 percent, followed by Bauchi at 9.37 percent and Sokoto at 9.05 percent.

The World Bank had previously warned that a surge in global oil prices could directly add approximately 3.1 percentage points to Nigeria's headline inflation, with indirect effects potentially pushing it higher due to increased fuel and transportation costs.