Nigeria’s headline inflation is forecast to rise to 16.42% year-on-year in April 2026, as sustained pressure from food prices, higher energy costs, and elevated global commodity prices continue to shape the domestic price environment.
The projection is contained in the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) Inflation Forecast report for April 2026, released on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the World Bank, and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
On a month-on-month basis, FMDA projects headline inflation at 2.78% in April, moderating from the 4.18% recorded in March. However, this remains elevated against the broader disinflation trend that had been building since the second half of 2025.
The forecast marks a reversal of the steady year-on-year deceleration that began in August 2025 and had brought annual inflation down from a peak of 27.35% in March 2025 to a low of 15.06% in February 2026, before it began to creep back up to 15.38% in March 2026.
What the FMDA is saying
The FMDA report identifies a confluence of global and domestic factors driving the April inflation forecast, with energy costs and food prices at the centre of the projected pickup.
On a month-on-month basis, April’s projected 2.78% increase compares with 4.18% in March, 2.01% in February and a deflation reading of -2.88% in January 2026. Year-on-year, inflation is forecast at 16.42% in April, up from 15.38 percent in March — the first back-to-back monthly acceleration in annual inflation since mid-2025.
Average PMS prices surged to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, a 9.44% increase, though significantly lower than the 37.35% spike recorded in March. The domestic food price index rose to 3.69 in April from 3.60 in March, driven by increases across major staples, with yam recording the sharpest rise at 3.98%.
Watermelon, maize, millet, and sorghum also posted moderate price increases during the month. The report notes that while energy-related inflationary pressures persist, the moderation in the pace of fuel price increases, combined with naira appreciation, may help partially contain the overall inflation outcome in April. The naira appreciated 1.36% on average to N1,361.22/$ in April from N1,379.98/$ in March.
Global Factors Impacting Prices
The FMDA report highlights a significant tightening in global commodity conditions during April, which is feeding through to Nigeria’s domestic price environment via import costs and energy prices.
Brent crude oil surged sharply to $120.4 per barrel in April from $103.7 per barrel in March, a development the report links to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on global supply chains. The World Bank Energy Index rose to 146.4 points in April from 130.6 points in March.
A member of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee, Professor Murtala Sabo Sagagi, warned that Nigeria’s fight against inflation could face renewed setbacks if fiscal spending remains unchecked, particularly during politically sensitive periods.
Sagagi made the remarks in his personal statement following the 304th Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in February, where policymakers reviewed domestic inflation trends, monetary tightening measures, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
His comments come as Nigeria continues efforts to stabilise prices, manage exchange rate pressures, and sustain recent disinflation gains amid persistent economic challenges.
Fiscal Spending Concerns
Sagagi warned that stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities is necessary to sustain recent progress in slowing inflationary pressures.
He stated, “Close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy is essential.” He also cautioned that “Increased fiscal releases associated with electoral cycles could reverse disinflation gains. The CBN should maintain dialogue with the fiscal authorities to ensure more responsible spending.”
The CBN has maintained a tight monetary policy stance over the past year as the apex bank attempts to curb inflation and stabilise the economy following subsidy reforms, exchange rate volatility, and rising food prices. Sagagi noted that despite signs that inflationary pressures may be moderating, the gains remain fragile due to underlying structural constraints across the economy.
He also stressed that insecurity and structural weaknesses in agriculture continue to pose significant risks to price stability and economic recovery.
