Global Trade Resilience and Regional Performance
Africa’s merchandise exports increased by 14% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, recording the second-highest regional growth globally. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) report titled “Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East,” the continent matched the 14% growth of South and Central America but trailed Asia’s 20% expansion.
The expansion in African exports was driven by precious metals, gold, copper, fertilizers, and ores, which offset declines in cocoa and fuel exports. Meanwhile, Africa’s merchandise imports rose by 15% year-on-year, led by vehicles, machinery, ships, and boats. This brought Africa’s cumulative import growth since the start of 2023 to 25%, the highest among all regions.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Africa recorded a 2.5% export decline, while South America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) fell by 0.3% and 7.4% respectively. The WTO expects these regions to rebound in the second quarter as petroleum producers compensate for reduced output in the Middle East. Globally, fuel prices rose 3% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, while prices for metals and minerals, excluding gold and silver, jumped 32%.
Major Global Exporters and Historical Context
The five largest global exporters all recorded nominal year-on-year export growth in the first quarter of 2026. South Korea led global growth at 38.4%, followed closely by Hong Kong at 38.3%, the United States at 15.2%, China at 14.7%, and the European Union at 9.2%.
On the import side, Hong Kong led with a 44.8% increase, followed by the United Kingdom at 28%, China at 23%, and the European Union at 11.4%. Conversely, United States merchandise imports declined by 13.6% during the quarter.
This performance follows a statement by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in January 2025, noting that global trade had reached $30.4 trillion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The WTO previously projected Africa’s exports to grow by 5.3% in 2024. Additionally, the organization noted in September 2025 that artificial intelligence could boost global cross-border trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if digital divide policies are implemented.
Nigeria Trade Surplus and Non-Oil Export Growth
Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus surged to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 340.88% increase from the N1.71 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter. This massive growth occurred despite a general export decline in previous months.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose to N3.19 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. This performance reinforces the country’s gradual shift toward a diversified export base, with non-oil exports accounting for approximately 15.05% of total exports during the quarter.
Despite these gains, challenges remain regarding regional integration. The Network of Practicing Non-Oil Exporters of Nigeria (NPNEN) released a market survey in March showing that exporter usage of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remains low, despite the N12.36 trillion non-oil export performance recorded in 2025.
