President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is once again wading into the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State, marked by a deepening rift between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike.

This intervention comes as the Rivers State Assembly insists that impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara are still active, adding fuel to the already volatile situation.

What you should know

The political turmoil in Rivers State stems from a power struggle between Governor Fubara and Nyesom Wike, the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and Fubara's predecessor. Recall that Tinubu previously intervened to broker a truce between the two, but the underlying issues appear unresolved. The impeachment attempt by the State Assembly, largely believed to be loyal to Wike, has further intensified the crisis.

The instability is occurring against a backdrop of rising business costs in the state. According to reports, businesses and traders are increasing prices, citing new tax laws as a contributing factor. This could potentially exacerbate economic hardship for residents and further destabilize the state.

Adding to the complexity, former Ekiti State Governor, Ayodele Fayose, has publicly stated his surprise at the deterioration of the relationship between Fubara and Wike, indicating the unexpected nature of the conflict even among political insiders. This comes as a surprise because Fubara was largely seen as Wike's protege.

Tinubu's Intervention

President Tinubu's renewed involvement underscores the significance of Rivers State, a major economic hub and oil-producing region. Any prolonged instability could have far-reaching consequences for the nation's economy and security.

The specific details of Tinubu's intervention remain unclear, but it is expected to involve mediation and negotiation to de-escalate tensions and find a lasting resolution. Market watchers believe that Tinubu aims to prevent the crisis from spiraling out of control and undermining the current administration.

Impeachment Process Continues

Despite the President's intervention efforts, the Rivers State Assembly has affirmed that the impeachment process against Governor Fubara is still underway. This suggests a continued determination by some members of the Assembly to remove the Governor from office. The grounds for the impeachment are yet to be made public, but it is widely speculated that they are linked to the power struggle with Wike.

Economic Implications

The ongoing political crisis poses a significant threat to the economic stability of Rivers State. The reported increase in prices by businesses and traders, attributed to new tax laws, could trigger inflation and reduce consumer spending.

Investors may also become hesitant to invest in the state due to the uncertain political climate, potentially hindering economic growth and job creation. This means that the political uncertainty could translate to real economic hardship for the average Rivers State resident. Market watchers say this is bad for business.

What to Watch For

Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor the developments in Rivers State, including the outcome of President Tinubu's intervention and the status of the impeachment proceedings. Any further escalation of the conflict could have serious implications for the state's economy and the broader investment climate.

Additionally, monitoring the implementation and impact of the new tax laws will be crucial to understanding their effect on businesses and consumers. This comes as the state is yet to pass its 2026 budget. The state's finances are therefore uncertain.