Escalating tensions in the Middle East have sent crude oil prices soaring, with Brent crude futures nearing the $100 per barrel mark. The conflict has triggered significant disruptions in global energy supplies, raising concerns about prolonged supply shortages and further price volatility.

On March 12, 2026, Brent crude futures rose $4.47, or 4.86%, to $96.45 per barrel by 07:33 GMT, after briefly touching $100 earlier in trading. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $4.05, or 4.64%, to $91.30 per barrel, reflecting heightened concerns over regional supply instability.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has flagged the Middle East war as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Gulf countries have reportedly cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day. This has sharply curtailed global energy supplies.

Iran has issued stark warnings, stating that oil prices could surge towards $200 per barrel following attacks on three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Iran reportedly laid naval mines in the Strait, disrupting approximately 20% of global oil and LNG shipping.

In response to the growing supply fears, the IEA announced an emergency release of 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves. However, markets remain unsettled amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Market watchers note that the oil price surge reflects continued uncertainty over regional security and the flow of crude through strategic chokepoints. ING analysts observed that there are currently no signs of de-escalation in the Gulf. They stated, “The only way to see oil prices trade lower on a sustained basis is by getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Failing to do so means that the market highs are still ahead of us,” as quoted by Reuters.

The conflict has had a direct impact on commodity trading data. Brent crude oil has recorded a year-to-date gain of more than 55%. As of mid-trading on March 12, 2026, the commodity had surged over 30% month-to-date, putting February on track to be its strongest month post-2020 if prices hold.

Brent began the year near $60.75 per barrel, rising to $69 by the final trading day of January and extending to around $72 in February. After the United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, Brent jumped from $72 to $77 in early March and later surged above $100 as the feud escalated.

For Nigeria, the rise in global crude prices has pushed petrol pump prices higher. This is despite improvements in domestic refining capacity, as the country still imports most of its petroleum products. Oil marketers have indicated that petrol could have reached as high as N1,500 per litre if domestic refineries, particularly Dangote Refinery, had not significantly boosted local production capacity.