Nigeria’s Eurobonds faced renewed selling pressure in the international market during the week ended March 13, 2026, with the average yield rising by 0.08 basis points to 7.26%, even as Nigeria’s domestic bond market recorded stronger investor demand.

Eurobonds trade data analysed by Nairametrics indicate average weekly price decline across most maturities, suggesting weaker demand from global investors now seeking higher yields amid rising concerns over geopolitical tensions, which have dampened investor appetite for emerging market debt.

The short-dated instruments, such as the 6.50% November 2027 bond, fell from 100.8 to 100.57, while the 6.125% September 2028 Eurobond declined more sharply from 99.88 to 99.21.

Similarly, the 6.375% March 2029 bond eased from 105.67 to 105.26, underscoring a mild sell-off across the shorter end of the yield curve.

What the data is saying

Nigeria’s Eurobond yields edged higher across the curve during the week as prices softened, suggesting reduced appetite from offshore investors. The trend indicates investors are demanding higher risk premiums to hold emerging-market dollar debt.

• The 6.50% Nov 2027 Eurobond yielded 6%, rising 13 basis points week-on-week.
• The 6.125% Sep 2028 note climbed 29 basis points to 6.2%, marking the sharpest weekly increase along the short end of the curve.
• Nigeria’s 2030 Eurobond rose to 6.6% while the 2031 issue settled at 7.0%.

Further along the maturity curve, the 2033 bond was down by 3 basis points, yielding 7.4%, while the 2051 Eurobonds yielded 8.25%, indicating 0.08 basis points decline.

Prices also edged lower across most maturities during the week, reinforcing the sell-off trend among offshore investors. Several issues declined between $-0.23 (Nov.28, 2027) and $-0.63 (Feb.16, 2032).

Domestic Market Contrast

In contrast to the weakness in Nigeria’s Eurobond market, the domestic sovereign debt market closed the week on a bullish note as institutional investors increased their exposure to naira-denominated government securities.

• Average yields in the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bond market declined by 3 basis points to 15.76%.
• Pension funds, banks and other institutional investors increased allocations to local bonds in search of relatively attractive risk-adjusted returns.
• Stable liquidity conditions within the domestic financial system supported demand for government securities.
• Local investors showed continued willingness to absorb supply even at slightly lower yields.

The divergence highlights the difference in investor behaviour, with domestic investors focused on local liquidity and yield opportunities, while international investors are reacting more strongly to global macroeconomic risks.

Global Factors Driving Yields

The shift in global bond sentiment follows a sharp surge in crude oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the United States and Israel against Iran.

• The conflict disrupted shipping and energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade.
• Crude oil prices surged to as high as $119–$120 per barrel at the peak of the crisis.
• Prices later eased to about $97–$99 per barrel after coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases and early diplomatic signals of de-escalation.
• The recent rally represents an estimated 40–50% increase in crude prices over the past few weeks.

The spike in oil prices has reignited fears of a renewed wave of global inflation, which could push interest rates higher globally. Such conditions typically weigh on bond prices as investors demand higher yields to compensate for inflation risks and tightening financial conditions.