OPEC+ is set to raise its oil production quota by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for May 2026, according to sources speaking to Reuters ahead of the group’s meeting.
However, the planned increase is expected to have limited real impact, as ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, continue to disrupt supply across key producing nations.
The crisis has significantly constrained output from major Gulf producers, raising concerns about the effectiveness of OPEC+ supply adjustments in stabilising global oil markets.
OPEC+ Production Plans
Reuters stated that sources indicate that eight core OPEC+ members have agreed in principle to implement the same production increase approved for April.
Despite reports of limited transit activity resuming, uncertainty remains over how quickly supply routes and production capacity can normalise.
Supply Disruptions Persist
The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted operations:
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, has remained largely shut since late February.
- Key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have seen exports constrained.
- Russia’s output remains limited due to Western sanctions and war-related infrastructure damage.
