Food prices in Nigeria have remained persistently high despite government interventions and food imports valued at N7.65 trillion in 2025, raising questions about the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at easing cost pressures on households.

Economic and development experts, alongside government and development data, indicate a widening gap between fiscal interventions and actual market outcomes. Increased spending on palliatives and imports has not translated into improved affordability for households across the country.

What the data is saying

Available data indicate that government interventions and rising import bills have not translated into lower food prices, as inflation remains elevated across key consumer categories.

• The Federal Government spent N9.74 billion on food palliatives in 2024, according to data from BudgIT’s platform, GovSpend.
• This follows a 2023 intervention that allocated N5 billion each to the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) for rice and fertiliser procurement, amounting to a total of N185 billion for the purchase of 100,000 bags of rice and other grains for distribution as palliatives.
• Nigeria’s food import bill rose to about $10 billion in 2023, including $3 billion spent on grains.
• Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that food and beverage imports increased from N3.83 trillion in 2023 to N6.58 trillion in 2024 and further to N7.65 trillion in 2025.
• In 2024, the Federal Government introduced a zero-duty levy on selected food imports to ease soaring food prices.
• While the policy helped drive food inflation down from 40.8% in June 2024 to 8.89% in January 2025, some stakeholders say it had caused losses for farmers.
• Food inflation stood at 14.31% year-on-year in March 2026, contributing significantly to the overall inflation of about 15.38%.

The data points to sustained pressure on food prices despite increased fiscal interventions and import dependence.

More Insights

Experts say the persistence of high food prices reflects deep structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s food system rather than insufficient spending alone. They argue that production, logistics, and macroeconomic conditions are combining to keep prices elevated.

• Agricultural economist Dr. Adebayo Oladipo said weak supply chains and post-harvest losses limit the impact of government spending. He explains, “There is a tendency to equate higher spending with better outcomes, but in agriculture, that assumption often fails. If the supply chain is broken, if storage is poor, and if farmers cannot scale production, then additional funding will not automatically translate into lower prices.” He adds, “Nigeria loses a significant portion of its harvests to post-harvest losses. Until we fix storage and processing, we will continue to see scarcity in the markets even when production improves.”
• Development expert Dr. Zainab Usman highlighted rising fuel costs as a major driver of food inflation through higher transport and logistics expenses. She notes, “The food system does not operate in isolation. When fuel prices increase, transportation becomes more expensive, and that cost is passed on at every stage—from farmgate to wholesale to retail.” She further stresses that “removing inefficiencies in logistics could have as much impact on food prices as increasing production itself.”
• Abuja-based Economist Ibrahim Yusuf highlights the role of currency pressures, stating, “Exchange rate volatility has significantly increased the cost of imported food and agricultural inputs. Even local production is affected because many inputs—fertiliser, machinery, seeds—are priced in foreign currency. This creates a cycle where both imported and locally produced food become more expensive simultaneously.”
• Aminu Barko, a development specialist at the University of Abuja, emphasises the risks of relying on imports as a policy tool. “Imports can ease supply shortages in the short term, but they expose the country to global price swings and foreign exchange constraints,” the expert explains. “A resilient food system must be anchored in strong domestic production, not external dependence.”
• Security challenges also remain a critical constraint. According to Dr. Oladipo, “Large portions of Nigeria’s food-producing regions are affected by insecurity. Farmers are either unable to access their land or are producing below capacity due to risk. That directly reduces supply and pushes prices up.”
• Climate variability is compounding the issue. Environmental economist Hadiza Bello notes, “Floods and droughts are becoming more frequent, and they are disrupting planting cycles and harvest yields. Without climate-resilient farming practices, these shocks will continue to affect food availability and pricing.”

FG: Reducing Post-Harvest Loss Can Boost Food Availability

The Federal Government has stated that a reduction in post-harvest loss of farm produce by just 10% could significantly drive food availability in the country.

The government highlighted the alarming rate of agricultural produce wastage in Nigeria, with farmers losing up to 70% of their harvest due to inadequate storage and poor post-harvest management.

What the Minister is saying

Senator Abdullahi Aliyu, Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, emphasized that the levels of wastage among farmers are not only concerning but also unsustainable for food security in Nigeria.

• “Many of our farmers end up with wastage, some up to 30% to 40% of their produce, and some in the fruit and vegetable segments lose up to 60% to 70%,” he said.

Despite Nigeria’s leading global position in root and tuber crop production, including over 60 million tonnes of cassava and yam annually, Aliyu pointed out that these crops often never make it to consumers due to poor storage infrastructure.

• “If we work out a programme to reduce post-harvest loss by even 10%, more food will be available, and this will impact affordability. The more you have, the less the price,” Aliyu noted, underscoring that even a modest reduction in wastage could help lower food prices and ease inflation pressures.

In March 2026, Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.38%, up from 15.06% in February, driven largely by food costs.

Urban areas saw significant inflation, with month-on-month inflation reaching 3.16%, while rural areas experienced even sharper increases at 6.73%.

The rising cost of food has been compounded by exchange rate issues and supply constraints, with post-harvest losses being a critical factor in the food supply chain.