Nigeria's Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus saw a notable decline in 2025, falling to $4.23 billion from $6.83 billion recorded in the previous year, according to provisional data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

This overall decrease reflects a mixed performance across the current account, financial account, and income balances throughout the year.

The current account surplus for 2025 stood at $14.04 billion, which, while lower than the $19.03 billion posted in 2024, was significantly higher than the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023.

However, the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 presented a more challenging picture, with the current account surplus dropping sharply by 65.52% to $1.4 billion. This is a substantial decrease from the $4.06 billion surplus recorded in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025.

The country’s overall BOP surplus also fell to $2.67 billion in Q4 2025, a decrease from $4.6 billion in the preceding quarter.

This development highlights increasing strain on Nigeria’s external sector, driven by declining export earnings and rising import demand.

Trade and Income Balances

The goods account surplus declined by 60.93% to $1.77 billion in Q4 2025, down from $4.53 billion in Q3 2025. This was attributed to weaker export earnings.

Crude oil exports dropped by 20.54% to $6.77 billion, while refined petroleum exports declined by 13.97% to $1.97 billion.

Conversely, non-oil imports rose sharply by 24.93% to $8.77 billion, increasing pressure on the trade balance.

Total exports for the quarter decreased to $13.36 billion from $15.31 billion in Q3 2025, further narrowing the trade surplus.

The services account deficit narrowed slightly to $3.32 billion in Q4 2025, from $3.95 billion in Q3 2025, supported by lower service-related imports.

However, the primary income account deficit widened by 47.30% to $3.27 billion in Q4 2025, due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

The secondary income account, largely influenced by diaspora remittances, provided some support as inflows rose to $6.21 billion.

Financial Flows and Reserves

Nigeria recorded a higher net borrowing of $1.96 billion in Q4 2025, an increase from $0.79 billion in Q3 2025.

For the full year 2025, the services account deficit widened to $14.58 billion, up from $13.36 billion in 2024. This increase was driven by higher net outpayments for transport, travel, insurance, and government services not elsewhere classified.

The primary income deficit for 2025 increased by 60.88% to $9.09 billion.

Portfolio investment inflows fell by 48.3% to $8.04 billion in 2025, while direct investment inflows rose by 14.1% to $4.01 billion.

External reserves increased to $45.75 billion as of December 2025, marking a 13.83% rise year-on-year.

The Net Errors and Omissions position widened to a deficit of $15.73 billion in 2025, compared to a deficit of $9.38 billion in 2024, indicating persistent statistical discrepancies in external transaction reporting.