Analysts project that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will likely maintain its benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5% during the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. This expectation stems from a confluence of persistent inflationary pressures, ongoing exchange rate concerns, and broader global geopolitical risks.

The CBN's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to convene for its 305th meeting to review critical economic indicators. These include inflation trends, liquidity conditions, exchange rate stability, and overall macroeconomic developments.

Since the last MPC meeting in February 2026, where the MPR was reduced by 50 basis points to 26.5%, the economic landscape has shifted. While the February decision was supported by easing inflation and a stable exchange rate, recent external developments, including renewed tensions in the Middle East, have reintroduced significant risks.

Inflationary Pressures Resurface

Nigeria's disinflationary trend has shown signs of reversal. Headline inflation resumed its upward trajectory, reaching 15.38% in March and 15.69% in April 2026. This uptick is attributed to rising energy costs and supply-side disruptions influenced by global oil market volatility.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw a decline in March but rebounded sharply in April to levels seen previously. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose to 4.03%, with the index climbing to 137 points, its highest in 26 months. Food inflation has also remained elevated, persisting above the 16.06% recorded in November 2025.

Analyst Outlook

Market analysts, including Tosin Osunkoya, MD/CEO of Comercio Partners Asset Management, and Samson Esemuede, Chief Investment Officer at Zrosk Investment Management, anticipate the CBN will hold the MPR steady. Osunkoya stated, “No, I don’t think so. I think they would maintain status quo,” citing lingering geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices.

Esemuede echoed this sentiment, suggesting the MPC would likely wait to assess the full impact of global tensions on inflation and liquidity before considering further adjustments. He noted that despite relative naira stability, broad-based and persistent inflationary pressures remain a key concern across the economy.

The MPC's decision will be closely watched as it navigates these complex economic conditions, balancing the need to control inflation with supporting economic growth.