United Bank for Africa (UBA), Zenith Bank, and Access Corp are projected to deliver the strongest risk-adjusted returns among Tier-1 lenders in 2026, according to analysts at CardinalStone Research. Their latest “CardinalStone Banking Strategy Report,” published on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, points to capital appreciation and dividend strength as key drivers.

The report outlines projected total returns across major Nigerian banks, highlighting earnings recovery, valuation gaps, and improving balance sheets as key drivers of performance. It also identifies underperformers within both Tier-1 and Tier-2 segments.

CardinalStone analysts project total returns of 48.0% for UBA and 40.6% for Zenith Bank over the next year. These returns are expected to be driven largely by capital appreciation averaging 36.6%, alongside dividend yields of about 7.7%.

The analysts expect cleaner balance sheets, limited loan impairments, and renewed credit growth to drive higher interest income across the sector in 2026.

Nigerian banking stocks recorded strong performance in 2025 despite initial concerns surrounding the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exit from regulatory forbearance. Strong net-interest margins, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, helped cushion the sector and sustain earnings momentum.

This broader clean-up cycle has laid the foundation for improved earnings visibility and stronger credit expansion heading into 2026.

Access Corp’s valuation discount remains a central theme in the report, with analysts attributing its low price-to-book ratio to dividend concerns and profitability gaps relative to domestic Tier-1 peers. However, the group’s shift from acquisition-led expansion to consolidation is expected to improve asset yields and operational efficiency.

While FirstHoldCo is expected to see softer impairments and stronger revenue growth in FY2026, earnings per share may be diluted by new shares issued during recent capital raising, with dividend payout projected at a conservative 10%.

Analysts expect continued balance sheet repair across the banking industry to sustain real credit growth and earnings expansion through 2026. Improving macroeconomic conditions and stronger institutional participation are also projected to support valuation re-rating for leading lenders.

Overall, analysts maintain a constructive stance on Nigerian banking equities, positioning Tier-1 lenders in particular as key drivers of equity market performance in 2026, supported by a blend of dividend income and capital gains.