Nigeria recorded crude oil imports worth $3.74bn linked to the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Balance of Payments report. This figure highlights a significant shift in the country’s oil trade structure, even as it remains a crude producer.

The report stated that these crude oil imports by Dangote Refinery contributed to movements in the country’s current account position. Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04bn in 2025, a decrease from the $19.03bn recorded in 2024, but still substantially higher than the $6.42bn from 2023.

This decline from 2024 was partly attributed to structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining. Data from the report showed that crude oil exports decreased from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025, marking a 14.41 per cent decline.

Concurrently, the goods account maintained a surplus of $14.51bn in 2025, an increase from $13.17bn in 2024. This was largely supported by activities related to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other sectors. The CBN noted that the stronger goods balance was driven by significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery, alongside increased gas exports.

The refinery's operations have also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel. The availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery led to a substantial decline in fuel imports. Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, a 28.88 per cent decrease. Total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was counterbalanced by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased by 13.60 per cent year-on-year, from $25.74bn to $29.24bn, indicating sustained demand for foreign goods. Further pressure on the current account came from higher external payments, with net outflows for services rising from $13.36bn in 2024 to $14.58bn in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.

Net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, primarily due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88bn in 2024 to $23.20bn in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, though remittances remained a key component.

On the financial account, Nigeria recorded a net borrowing position of $1.69bn in 2025, a reversal from a net lending position of $9.65bn in 2024. Portfolio investment inflows fell sharply by 48.3 per cent to $8.04bn, while foreign direct investment inflows rose to $4.01bn from $1.61bn in the previous year.

Despite these pressures, Nigeria’s overall balance of payments remained positive at $4.23bn in 2025, a decrease from the $6.83bn surplus recorded in 2024. External reserves increased to $45.75bn by the end of December 2025, a 13.83 per cent rise compared to 2024 levels, supported by inflows and improved external buffers.

The PUNCH previously reported that Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734tn between January and December 2025, as domestic refineries faced feedstock shortages, despite the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy. Energy analysts have criticized the policy's implementation, stating it has had little impact on improving domestic crude supply or reducing fuel prices.

Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, noted that the naira-for-crude policy has yielded minimal results since its 2024 introduction, with refineries like Dangote still sourcing a significant portion of their feedstock from abroad. Olatide stated that Dangote refinery sources about 65 to 70 per cent of its feedstock internationally, while about 95 per cent of modular refineries also rely on imported crude.

“So, the initiative, for me, is not effective, and that is why we are still seeing a large inflow and importation of crude oil in 2025. In turn, prices at the depot and pump have not been different from when we were fully importing refined products,” Olatide added. He noted that while the refinery's capacity has improved product availability, it has not led to price relief for consumers, with pricing still tied to international benchmarks.